A new study from Brussels-based NGO T&E says transport is lagging behind the rest of Europe’s economy in its decarbonisation and the sector is on track to account for nearly 50% of the region’s GHG emissions in 2030.
European transport emissions have increased by more than a quarter since 1990, and T&E’s State of European Transport analysis finds that while emissions across the wider economy are already in decline, transport emissions continue to grow.
The NGO points out that since its peak in 2007, transport has been decarbonising more than three times more slowly than the rest of the economy and under current climate policies its share could reach 44% of all GHG emissions by 2030, up from 29% today.
Transport emissions in the EU are now more than 1000 MtCO2e, equivalent to the total emissions of Germany and the Netherlands combined.
Cars burning petrol and diesel are the overwhelming source of transport emissions, accounting for more than 40%, says T&E, while aviation emissions have doubled in the past 30 years - faster than any other transport sector.
The NGO’s analysis looks at the impact of the EU’s climate regulations in addressing rising transport emissions and finds that they will reduce transport emissions by just 25% compared to 1990 levels in 2040 and by 62% in 2050.
Turning to maritime, T&E says that shipping operators ‘have little incentive to increase their operational efficiency.’ However, by unlocking efficiency gains, the shipping sector could save an additional 93 MtCO2e in 2030 which will be crucial for charting a course to zero emissions by mid-century.
William Todts, Executive Director of T&E, commented: ‘The good news is transport emissions in Europe have peaked. The bad news is other sectors are decarbonising three times faster. In 2030, nearly half of the continent’s emissions will come from mobility, making it the problem child of Europe’s climate efforts. Decarbonising the sector as quickly as possible is now vital if the continent is to reach zero by 2050.’
Todts continued: 'Cars, trucks and vans can be cheaply electrified with batteries and renewables. This is now some of the lowest hanging fruit in climate action. Planes and ships pose a tougher challenge, and require a big effort from fuel suppliers to scale green fuels like e-kerosene and ammonia, and a plan to eliminate aviation contrails. Putting an end to road and airport expansion makes the decarbonisation job a lot easier.