In a new whitepaper published today (22 June), class society DNV notes that if shipping was to achieve full decarbonisation by 2050 primarily by using biofuels, in combination with energy efficiency measures, some 250 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) of biofuels would be needed.
According to the paper, titled Biofuels in Shipping, the use of biofuel as a bunker fuel has, up until very recently, been extremely low. However, in 2022 its uptake began to accelerate, with reports of around 930,000 tonnes of blended biofuel being bunkered in Singapore and Rotterdam.
‘Blended biofuels typically consist of around 30% biofuel, so we concluded that these figures from Singapore and Rotterdam accounted for around 280,000 tonnes of pure biofuels,’ said Eirik Ovrum, Principal Consultant in DNV Environment Advisory and co-author of the biofuels white paper.
‘Whilst this might seem like a large number, it still accounts for just 0.1% of total maritime fuel consumption of 280 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) per year.’
The study emphasises the importance of checking the compatibility of biofuels with onboard machinery on a case-by-case basis.
‘All biofuel options should be mapped so that users are aware of their properties, such as what feedstock they are based on, how they are produced and what their ideal storage conditions are,’ said Ovrum.
‘Dialogue should be held with engine manufacturers and equipment suppliers to make sure that there are no compatibility issues with certain biofuels. Seafarers and other personnel should be provided with relevant training related to the application of biofuels.’
In assessing current and future global biofuel production capacity, DNV has mined its own database of biofuel plants already in operation, as well as planned biofuel production projects. The database has identified around 5,000 biofuel production facilities worldwide and it forecasts how biofuel production is expected to develop through to 2050.
According to the paper, global production of advanced biofuels stands at 11 Mtoe per year in 2023 but these volumes will increase to 23 Mtoe per year by 2026. By 2050, the supply of biofuels could hit 500-1,300 Mtoe per year, says DNV, which means that shipping would require between 20% and 50% of this supply if it was to decarbonise primarily by using biofuels.
Given that total global energy demand today is around 10,500 Mtoe per year and shipping accounts for 3% of this, it is ‘unlikely that shipping will be able to obtain such a high share of biofuels,’ the study noted.
The white paper concludes that it is likely that biofuels will play an important role in shipping over the coming decades, limits on production capacity and competition from other industry sectors, mean that biofuels cannot be shipping’s only solution to decarbonisation.
‘The maritime industry will, therefore, have to continue to explore other options to reach net zero,’ it said.
The DNV white paper, Biofuels in Shipping, can be accessed here
