Vessel operators switching to Cape of Good Hope routes to avoid the volatile Red Sea region could see a near tripling of their EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) liabilities, says maritime data analysis company Oceanscore.
Commercial ships taking the alternative route to Europe via the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the Houthi threat can add around 9000 nautical miles, or 80%, to the distance sailed.
Oceanscore highlights recent statistics from Clarksons Research which show that container ship transits via the Gulf of Aden to the Mediterranean have dropped 91% from the first half of December as around 620 vessels have been diverted, while bunker and crude tanker transits are down 37% and 31%, respectively. Conversely, Cape of Good Hope tonnage arrivals have risen 81% since December.
OceanScore has estimated the route via the Cape has tripled bunker consumption due to the longer distance and an approximate 25% increase in sailing speed from 16 to 20 knots, based on its AIS tracking of mainly container vessels.
‘We have observed increased speeds to compensate for at least some of the longer distance – to keep sailing times and the need for additional tonnage to be deployed at acceptable levels – and this has an inevitable impact on fuel consumption and emissions,’ says OceanScore’s Co-Managing Director, Albrecht Grell.
Modelling analysis conducted by the firm, based on the case of a 14,000-TEU container ship, has shown the number of EU Allowances (EUA), or carbon credits, necessary to cover emissions would rise from 1,800 per voyage to 5200 per voyage with the current 40% liability requirement under the three-year phase-in of the EU ETS from 1 January 2024, rising to 70% next year and 100% in 2026.
This, says the company, would translate into a near-threefold increase in EUA costs from €98,000 to €285,000 per voyage this year, based on the current carbon price of around €55 per tonne of CO2, or a hike of €18 per twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU).
Grell points out that, if the volatile carbon price returns to the level of around €100 that it reached a year ago, these costs would nearly double. “With complete phase in of the EU ETS to 100% of emissions, we would see another 250% increase that would bring the cost mark-up per box to around €80,’ he says.
‘It goes without saying that changes in sailing speeds, different vessel sizes, utilizations and the overall energy efficiency of the vessel used will all have a significant impact on the above analysis – but the general trend will be the same,’ Grell adds.
